Sometimes in life, if you want to do something but don’t quite know how, it’s helpful to think about what not to do first. I find this exercise very helpful with sports betting. It’s hard to be a winning bettor, but surprisingly easy to be a losing one. Let’s go over the ways that you’ll lose for sure so that we can start our journey by not making these rookie mistakes.
Let’s meet our typical bettor
Today, I’m going to introduce you to Brad. Brad has been out of college for a few years and picked up a nice sales job, leaving him with some cash to throw in a sports betting account. He loves watching sports with his 3 roommates in their apartment, especially NFL on Sundays and the NBA playoffs. Brad, unfortunately, is one of a long line of unsuccessful sports bettors. Sure, he’ll tell you it’s fine and he’s really betting for the entertainment, but you can tell deep down inside he wants to win. Brad is frustrated with losing, and occasionally loses big enough on a weekend to get himself in a real bad mood. Let’s find out why Brad loses and what he can do differently.
1. Only using one sports book account
Despite the fact there are 7 legal sports books in his state (and some offshore books as well), Brad only bothered to download one, and has been using exclusively that account. This causes two main problems for Brad. First, he’s missing out on several deposit bonuses and promotions offered by other books trying to attract customers. He could have been getting more rewards and free bets, but sadly, he’s not taking advantage of these. Second, he’s never able to compare lines or odds across multiple books and get the best one. Why bet the Eagles -3.5 when they’re -3 on another book?
Using multiple accounts, clearing all your bonuses, and making sure that you’re always getting the best price on a bet can separate a winning bettor from a losing one. If this sounds time-intensive, it’s not! Thanks to tools like OddsJam which help you compare across odds across books in seconds, even for player props.
Make sure you look at which sports books are live in your state and claim your bonuses from them! Here’s a list of books that are live in most states where sports betting is legal:
2. Exclusively betting on gameday
Brad isn’t the type of bettor to think too far ahead on what he wants to bet. Plus, who wants to tie their money up for two days before the game?
Winning bettors, that’s who.
By only betting NFL on Sundays after he wakes up, Brad is missing out on some extreme value to be had earlier in the week. As many of you have
3. Betting lots of parlays
Parlays are exciting and offer the chance for a big payout, which is why Brad loves them. However, they are generally terrible bets with a high house edge. The more games included in a parlay, the higher the house edge, and the lower the probability of winning. Despite this, Brad often finds himself betting on 5 or 6 team parlays, and while he has won a few, overall, he is losing a lot more money than he is winning.
There are some situations where a parlay makes sense to bet, and that will be a topic for a future advanced article on sports betting. It’s often when there are non-obvious correlated factors working in your favor (hint: I’ve got one coming up when it’s March Madness time).
In general, if you just have to bet a parlay, make sure you’re at least using a boost from the sports book to do it. Sports books love giving out bonuses and boosts for parlays, because they know it’ll entice you to bet more of them. Brad would be better served to simply throw in his one parlay in with a boost, and then that’s it for the rest of the weekend.
4. Not using all his promotions or boosts to build his bankroll
Every sports book wants you to log in every day and try to bet something, that’s why they have daily boosts, bonuses, and other rewards to keep you coming back. Often times, bettors like Brad who only watch a few sports, maybe football and NBA, can’t be bothered to log in during the week and take advantage of a boost on a Baseball or a Soccer game.
Guess what, the money you make on a 1pm Wednesday baseball game counts the same as the money you make on the Sunday night primetime NFL game.
The boosts and promos are the main advantage you as the bettor have over the sports book. They’re giving you positive expected value and money! Take it! Brad would be better served being consistent, checking his app every day, and taking advantage of $20-50 promos in order to make sure he continues to build his bankroll for NFL season.
5. Ignoring props and other smaller markets
Brad usually sticks to the main markets, such as the moneyline and point spreads of the NFL and main college football games that day. He ignores props and other smaller markets, which may be less efficiently priced and offer better value. By not considering these markets, Brad is missing out on potentially profitable betting opportunities.
The main point spread and total markets of NFL are incredibly efficient, especially on game day (one of Brad’s other problems). Very few bettors can reliably make money betting an NFL side 30 minutes before kickoff. All of the big money has had 6 days to form their opinion on the game, and they are not in the habit of being horribly wrong very often.
As long as Brad is watching the games, he might be better served betting a few smaller markets such as props, first halves, or second halves. These markets are going to have less efficient numbers, and give a football watching fan more of an opportunity to win their bet!
