As we transition into Week 6, a quick look at the injury report reveals some intriguing spots to consider. You might remember from our mid-season roadmap article last week that betting at this stage of the NFL season is dominated by two things: Injuries and matchups, and we went 2-0 on these bets last week. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 6 injury report and get ahead of the market with two early leans.
Disclaimer: While it’s essential to say that nobody ever wishes for an injury or takes pleasure from a player’s misfortune, the pragmatic side of sports betting acknowledges that these unfortunate events can create windows of opportunity.
Bet Target 1: Vikings -2.5 vs Bears
We’re going to start with a small curveball here and actually bet on a team that had a notable injury. Paying attention to specific injuries goes both ways. Sometimes, we’ll want to fade a team that has a cluster of injuries at a specific position. Other times, we’ll want to bet a team where the market is overreacting to one specific player getting injured. This bet is of the second variety.
If you are online whatsoever (and you clearly are, by virtue of reading this article), you’ll already know that Justin Jefferson is heading to the IR. While this is certainly an impactful injury to the Vikings, I expect this will do significantly more harm to fantasy football teams than it will to the actual football team he plays for. The great news for the Vikings is that they have multiple capable players ready to step in. And more targets for T.J. Hockenson, one of the most efficient TE’s in the league, is not a bad thing at all for this offense.
As bettors, we must note that the market has violently downgraded the Vikings just because of this one injury. The line is cratering from -4.5 to -2.5, a huge move across two key numbers of 3 and 4. I’m going to buy the Vikings here getting less than a field goal.
Bet Target 2: Giants +14 vs Bills
As you’ll recall last week, we faded the Bills due to their problematic injuries on defense. We also liked that they had to fly all the way to London with this same defense that hadn’t practiced much during the week.
Well guess what? The Bills now have even more problematic injuries on defense. Oh, and also still have to fly back from London with that same defense that isn’t going to practice much all week. Oh yeah, and they’re also laying 14 points.
The Bills do have enough offensive talent to potentially cover this number. That being said, we’re going to go with the probabilities and say this number is a bit out of hand. I don’t see how an NFL team as snake-bitten as the Bills can be expected to win this game in this spot by over two touchdowns more than half the time. The Giants are not a good team by any means. They are dealing with a few offensive line injuries of their own. It’s unclear to me though how the Bills defense will take advantage of this with all these players out. I’m going to hold my nose and play the Giants +14 here.
Final Thoughts
As you can see, utilizing the NFL Week 6 Injury Report early in the week allows us to identify some spots. Some of these we may want to bet immediately, and others we can wait for our number. With respect to the above two games, I have already put these bets in. I want to grab the Vikings -2.5, and I don’t think the Giants will get to +14.5.
