My Current Run on NFL Prop Betting
As a $200 bettor (I’m usually limited by the books if I try to bet more) I’m still able to be up over 60 betting units through week 5
Let’s get straight to the point: anyone can crush NFL Prop Bet markets with the right information. The larger markets (spreads and totals) are much harder for the average bettor to beat. Props, however, boast the advantage that there are so many of them every week that to book can’t possibly be efficient with every line. In this article, I’m going to show in detail exactly how I beat the prop market, step-by-step, so you can do the same thing. At the end, hopefully your results can look like mine.
Step 1: Check the Arbitrage Tool from OddsJam
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If you saw 20 dollars lying on the ground, you’d pick it up, right? Well, that’s effectively what I do every day with the OddsJam Arbitrage tool. My first step of any NFL Thursday, Sunday, or Monday is to fire up the Arbitrage tab in OddsJam and take a look. This tab will show you if there’s an immediate money making opportunity to be made. Let’s walk through the screen below:
On the Arbitrage screen, you can see all the arbitrage opportunities that were available during Week 2 of the NFL season. You can see Christian McCaffrey was +158 to score a TD at one shop, while being +115 to NOT score a TD at another shop. This is an incredible 14.73% guaranteed return on investment bet, and my first thing to do each week is grab any of these >10% arbitrage opportunities.
This is something I used to do myself manually, but nobody possibly has the time to go to all 10+ sports books for 1000+ props each weekend. OddsJam makes this process incredibly easy. This screen will pay for your subscription in 1 week of use. If there’s money on the ground, pick it up!
Learn more about arbitrage betting in detail in my previous guide
Step 2: Fire up OddsJam’s +EV screen
After we’ve picked up our free money, the real fun begins! It’s time to take a spin through the +EV screen, which is where I make the bulk of my profits. “EV” stands for “Expected Value,” which is the holy grail for sports bettors. Basically, this tab will show you proprietary projections on what plays are more likely than not to turn a profit that day. I use this screen in conjunction with my own opinions and research to dominate the sports books. By the end of this process, I feel like a professional trader with more information than Vegas itself. Let’s take a look below:
This screen shows all +EV plays from Week 2’s Thursday Night Eagles/Vikings game
In this particular game, I did already have an opinion on D’Andre Swift’s receiving yards. I liked the under, assuming that since he would be featured more on early downs, he wouldn’t get as much pass game work. Because I liked the under, I was happy to see that it was included in the +EV bet. I then simply used this tool to choose which book to bet it at. Caesar’s was offering the best price at +112, so I bet it there. It’s easy to throw $200 on this bet knowing that you’re getting a great +EV line on a bet you already like.
Sign up for OddsJam here for access to the +EV and Arbitrage products
Step 3: Form Your Opinion on Props With a Stale Line
The +EV screen is great for confirming your bets as well as identifying new ones. Just like I did with my D’Andre Swift bet, it’s worth first going through the other props where there’s a single book with a valuable line. After you’ve done that, you should also review other bets in the +EV screen to see if you agree with OddsJam’s algorithm.
For example, DeVonta Smith under 5.5 receptions hadn’t been on my radar going into the game. Thanks to its appearance on the +EV screen, I decided to dig in further. I realized that it jived with my prior belief that the Eagles would try and establish Swift on the ground, leading to fewer passing game opportunities overall if the Eagles were successful. Because of that, I was able to grab Smith under 5.5 receptions at plus-money thanks to the +EV screen. This bet also hit, as Smith finished the game with 4 catches.
Step 4: Don’t be Afraid to Bet Unders on NFL Prop Bets!
Notice that in the above examples, both bets I placed (and won) were unders. 90% of NFL prop bettors tend to prefer overs, sometimes parlaying many overs from the same game. What the above +EV screen shows you is that often times the valuable side on a prop is the under. Two factors influence this: First, the wide popularity of overs causes books to shade lines up. Second, the nature of injuries in the NFL unfortunately means that there’s always a chance of an injury to a player (and the under cashing). Don’t be afraid to mix in unders into your prop strategy, your bankroll will thank you.
Step 5: Don’t Over-Extend Your Bankroll
I know this is advice that people will either skip or roll their eyes at, but it’s critical not to over-extend your bankroll on just one game. Remember, each NFL game is very unpredictable, and crazy bad beats can and will happen. You never know which game is going to be the one to hit it big. As a now +EV bettor after reading all this, your number one job is to stay in the game and not lose all your money on one game. It’s a long season and dozens of opportunities every game day await. The only way you can lose is by over-betting, then having to take the next week off (which you would have hit big). Keep your capital close, stay in the game, and happy winning!
FAQs
What does prop mean in betting?
A prop (or proposition) is a type of wager that focuses on a specific player or situation in a game. A prop bet does not require a wager on the outcome of the game. An example would be betting on a specific NFL player to score a touchdown in the game
What is the best prop site?
FanDuel, Draftkings, and BetMGM stand out as sites with the most extensive selection of player and game props, along with daily bonuses or boosts that help your payout when betting on props. Offshore sportsbooks usually do not have as robust a selection of props.
Are prop bets profitable?
There is significantly more profit potential in betting props than wagering on the side or total of a game. Because there are sometimes hundreds of props per game, there are more opportunities for the savvy and knowledgeable sports fan and bettor to find a mispriced or valuable prop bet.
