Hello, NFL degenerates! Week 1 of the NFL is behind us, and with that comes one of my favorite weeks in the NFL season to bet on. Welcome to overreaction week! That sweet, sweet aroma of media hot takes, fans already quitting on their team, and twitter touts victory lapping on a super bowl future after one week.
My content plan for this site is not as much to share picks and leans as it is to educate sports bettors on how to win consistently and easily, sort of a “teach a degenerate to fish” strategy. However, sometimes, like during my favorite week of the year, we simply have to just share the picks. For more general info on my early-season NFL betting roadmap, check out my article here
Whenever I do share specific picks, they will come with the following disclaimer: I may or may not have already bet these games at the number listed. I reserve the right to place any bet, not place a bet, wait for a better number, etc. You, and you alone, are the person responsible for clicking the button to place a bet for yourself. This article is but one resource that you should use for your overall handicapping. Gambling is a high-variance activity, and even professional bettors have losing weeks and months, there is NO WAY to guarantee one week of picks will be profitable.
And with that out of the way, let’s get to some interesting matchups:
Sunday 1pm EST: Seahawks (+5.5) vs Lions
Our first overreaction spot comes to you live from Ford Field in Detroit, where the Lions and their slowly-emerging-from-the-woods fanbase is flying high after knocking off the defending champs in week 1. Meanwhile, this Seattle team just got whipped at home by league afterthought LA Rams in a game that most people didn’t see a minute of given the other intriguing matchups in the 4pm window.
The Analysis: As I sat down Monday morning to look at the week 2 lines, this was the one that immediately jumped off the board, and I rushed to hit Seattle +6. I make this game around Detroit -3/3.5, and the lookahead line was Detroit -2.5/-3. It’s worth noting that there are some injury concerns for Seattle, but I can’t get any higher than -4 here.
Quite simply, this is an overreaction special. The Lions beat the Chiefs without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones by 1 point. If Kadarius Toney could just catch the ball, it’s likely the Lions don’t even cover the +4.5 spread let alone with the game. At the end of the day I think our pre-season expectations for the Lions are about right on par. They’re a solid team that can hang with anyone in the league, but they have some question marks, especially at the QB position and some spots on defense. I don’t see much reason to upgrade the Lions after week 1.
Meanwhile, Seattle lost in against a team that, when healthy, can also hang with anyone in the league. I had a Rams +6 ticket from earlier in the summer which was a stress-free cash, and I’m not sure why that line ever got out to 6. Seattle had a better-than expected year last year and is sure to experience some regression to the mean. The Rams are better at the QB position and have the best player on the field (Aaron Donald), and the x-factor was Puka Nacua filling in admirably for Cooper Kupp. Throw in a few stupid Pete Carrol-coached team penalties and the game got away from them quickly.
At the end of the day, these are two middle-of-the-pack football teams. This spread should never be more than 3.5 or 4
The Trend: Home favorites that lost by double digits in week 1 are an eye-popping 24-1 (yes, you read that correctly) against the spread in week 2 in the last 25 instances.
The Pick: Seahawks +5.5, but you probably figured that out already. We wrote them off! They ain’t writing back though.
Sunday 4:25pm EST: Jets (+9.5) vs Cowboys
Oh boy, does it get more “teams heading in the opposite direction” than this? The Cowboys looked like world beaters in week 1, while the Jets had the most pyrrhic victory of all time against the Bills, losing Aaron Rodgers for the season and leaving Jets fans wondering what they did to continue to deserve all this.
The Analysis: I’m going to be brief here, because many people reading this will flat-out refuse to make this bet. I get it, I really do. The worst thing that can happen to a sports bettor, even worse than losing money, is to seem like a total idiot. Betting on the Jets this week runs a very high risk of you looking like a moron in front of your friends, and people don’t like to do that. I understand.
However, there are two situations that I like to look at in the NFL, and this game has not one, but both of them occurring at the same time. And that’s very rare, this might be the only time this happens this season.
Trend 1: Teams that just pitched a shutout are 8-18 (31%) against the spread in their next game, dating back to 2012
Trend 2: When a team’s QB gets hurt, and the backup QB has to start the next game on the road, they are 59-39 (60%) ATS since 2012
The pick: Jets +9.5. That’s it, that’s the pick. I have to do it. I can’t tell you why other than this should, in theory, be one of the most profitable spots we see all season. Instead of looking like the dumbest person in the room, you might end up looking like the smartest.
Monday 8:15pm EST: Browns vs Steelers (+2.5)
On Monday night we have a team coming off a double-digit win traveling to face a familiar divisional rival coming off a double-digit loss. In week 1, the Browns held one of the best QB’s in the league to 3 points in a rainy, sloppy game in Cleveland, while the Steelers looked overmatched against a Niners team that will be front and center in the conversation for championship contenders.
The Analysis: This game will be a lot more about the question marks that we still have on the Browns than any positive indicators we have on the Steelers. The Steelers didn’t look great against the Niners, but it’s possible the Niners are very, very good. It’s also likely that the Niners are one of the worst matchups in the league for the Steelers with their ability to use an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield behind a strong offensive line to neutralize what TJ Watt and co. can do so well, which is get home on the QB. I don’t have any changes to make to a rating on the Steelers after that game.
The Browns, on the other hand, won a game in adverse weather conditions and I’d argue didn’t actually look that impressive doing it. The Bengals did not show up, gifting the Browns positive field position time and time again. I’m…not sure Deshaun Watson is very good at this point, and the Bengals were able to get home on the QB, something that the Steelers will absolutely be able to do during a prime time home game. It’s worth noting that this lookahead line before the Week 1 games were played was Steelers -2.5.
The Trend(s): Mike Tomlin off a loss is 50-39 ATS, and is also 13-6 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season
The Pick: Steelers +2.5. Prime time Heinz Field is a different animal than 1pm Sunday Heinz Field, give me the Steelers
