2023 Best Bets Record: 2-1 (+0.9 units)
Alright my fellow NFL degenerates, our best bets went 2-1 last week, with only the Jets failing to put up any effort whatsoever. Both of our 2 underdog wins also won the game outright, so if you like to sprinkle on the Money Line like I do, you had yourself a pretty decent week last week.
Week 3 is what I like to call “now or never” week. It’s more or less the last opportunity for a team that has had an unexpected positive or negative start to the season to prove to us whether they are a different team than we thought they were, or if this is what we can expect from them going forward. For more general info on my early-season NFL betting roadmap, check out my article here
Whenever I do share specific picks, they will come with the following disclaimer: I may or may not have already bet these games at the number listed. I reserve the right to place any bet, not place a bet, wait for a better number, etc. You, and you alone, are the person responsible for clicking the button to place a bet for yourself. This article is but one resource that you should use for your overall handicapping. Gambling is a high-variance activity, and even professional bettors have losing weeks and months, there is NO WAY to guarantee one week of picks will be profitable.
And with that out of the way, let’s get to some now-or-never spots and how I’m betting them:
Sunday 1pm EST: Broncos (+6.5) vs Dolphins
Our first featured game is a matchup between, and stop if you’ve heard this before, two teams heading in opposite directions! The Broncos have come out flat to start the Sean Payton era, losing not once but twice as favorites of more than 3. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have won and covered two games and appear to be taking another leap forward with Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel pulling the strings. If this is, in fact what we can expect from these two teams, you’d expect that getting under a touchdown with Miami would be appealing.
The Analysis: As is typical with NFL week 3, this is the exact type of spot we love to target, and more often than not we’re going to play a “regression to the mean” angle, especially when the point spread dictates a new situation for each team.
What do I mean by that exactly? Well, this is the Broncos’ first game as a ‘dog this year, and they’re a pretty significant underdog, catching 6.5. Conversely, Miami has been involved in two games with small point spreads, and now is expected to win by significant margin. We see teams like both the Broncos and Dolphins often in the NFL. The Broncos specifically are a team that you should run far, far in the other direction if they’re being listed as a favorite. But what have they done in the first two games? Even though they lost? Kept it close.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked great, but also have not been able to put together a performance that shows they should be winning by a touchdown or more often. They were one crazy review away from possibly being tied with the Patriots and heading to overtime.
Situational Spot: Miami is playing this game in between two big road games against divisional rivals (Patriots last week, Bills next week). Not the greatest scheduling spot to win and cover.
The Pick: Broncos +6.5, this is a pick that is not going to be popular with your buddies on Sunday, but the situation dictates we bet on a close game occurring more often than not here.
Sunday 4:25pm EST: Bears (+13) vs Chiefs
Here’s a matchup between two teams that have underperformed to start the season, and it’s “Now or never” time for both the Chiefs offense, and also what seems like the entire Bears organization. Justin Fields blasting his coaches in the media this week has led to a significant pressure spot for the whole team. If they want to show any sign of life, it has to be this week.
The Analysis: This spot to me is a bit more about the Chiefs than the Bears, although I’ll get to the Bears side of it in a second. The Chiefs offense seems to have taken a major step back from last year, as it seems like none of the receivers on this team are able to step up and be “the guy” other than Travis Kelce who Mahomes can go to. I’m concerned this is a real thing, and especially with Kelce feeling the effects of his knee injury, it might take a few more weeks for this whole offense to get figured out. I trust that Andy Reid will do it by the second half of the season, but this game is in three days!
On the Bears side, the only positive thing you can say is that it really can’t get any worse. If anything, Fields’ comments could possibly lead to a more QB-heavy run game from the Bears, which would be a major positive improvement in their offense. Sure, this could put Fields in danger of injury later in the season, but, once again, we’re betting on one game here.
Trend Watch: Since the COVID year, Mahomes is 5-11 as a favorite of 10.5 or more
The pick: Bears +13. It’s time to back this team after staying away the first two weeks of the season. I’m counting on some errors from the Chiefs and more Justin Fields runs to keep this game close.
Monday 7:15pm EST: Eagles (-4.5) vs Bucs
The surprise 2-0 Bucs get to host the defending Super Bowl runners-up in a Monday primetime game. The Tampa faithful, if they haven’t already sold their season tickets yet when Brady retired, will surely be excited to pack Raymond James Stadium for this matchup.
The Analysis: The Bucs are either going to seriously contend for and possibly win the NFC South, or just become another 7-10 afterthought that started hot. This game will go a long way towards showing us which direction they’re headed.
As for me, I’m not a buyer yet on this Bucs team. The Bucs were outgained by over 100 yards by the Vikings, and then beat a Bears team that absolutely refused to deploy its QB’s best weapon (his legs). Worth noting, the 10-point win over the Bears included a garbage time pick-6. So what we have with the Bucs is a team that won with smoke and mirrors, and then covered with smoke and mirrors the next week.
I want to root for Baker, I really do. This will be a major reality check game for the Bucs. I make this like around Eagles -6.5, so this is a bet for me at -4.5
Stat of the Week: Tampa Bay has zero turnovers this year. Zero. Does that seem sustainable to you?
The Pick: Eagles -4.5
