Navigating the first three weeks of the NFL season can be a turbulent endeavor. Roster changes, off-season rumors, and the sheer unpredictability that comes with a new season can leave even the most seasoned bettors scratching their heads.
Fortunately, this isn’t my first rodeo over here. As a consistent winner during the early weeks of the season, it’s time to share my roadmap for betting the first three weeks of the NFL season. Football is back! And with it, hopefully a boost to your bankroll.
While we go through this roadmap, let’s also look back at specific examples and situations from last season, which is something I like to do because it’s easy to forget what happened even one year ago.
Week 1: The Enigma of the Unknown
Let’s be candid: nobody truly knows anything in Week 1. Sure, you might think you do. You watched Hard Knocks, you read some articles, you did a fantasy draft. Guess what – you don’t know much at all about how this season is going to go. Preseason games, training camps, and media hype paint a picture, but it’s always blurry at best. The established teams from last season might stumble out of the gates, and under-the-radar squads might surprise us all.
Reminding ourselves of this every year is one of the most important things we can do as football bettors. Week 1 is a hilarious week to look back at what some of the point spreads were before we really knew anything about the teams. Let’s remind ourselves of these Week 1 2022 spreads:
Game: Titans -5.5 vs Giants (whoops)
Result: Giants 21, Titans 20
Game: Niners -6.5 at the Bears (hmm)
Result: Bears 19, Niners 10
Game: Broncos -6.5 ON THE ROAD at the Seahawks (LOL)
Result: Seahawks 17, Broncos 16, Nathaniel Hackett fired before season was over
Betting Strategy: As you can see, there is plenty of room here to deploy a “week of underdogs” strategy. Anything can and will happen in week 1, and the lack of concrete information on teams’ real strengths means there are potential upsets waiting to happen. I typically deploy slightly lower betting volume than usual on week 1, but tend to skew it largely towards underdog money lines. When the range of outcomes is wider than usual (week 1 being a perfect example), you want to trend towards high-payout outcomes and away from things like teasers which are lower payout for the risk you’re taking on.
Week 2: Overreaction Central
Welcome to “Overreaction Week,” one of the favorite weeks of the year for professional bettors. Media outlets, fans, and sometimes even the bookmakers might make hasty judgments based on the results of the first game. But one game does not define a season, and even that gutsy upset win in week 1 might mean very little.
Let’s take a look at some fun Week 2 situations that we were able to capitalize on in 2022:
Game: Eagles -2.5 vs Vikings
Week 1 media reactions: The Vikings dominated Rodgers and the Packers, whereas the Eagles looked a bit lazy and allowed the Lions to hang around, only winning by 3 and not covering the spread. These narratives pushed the Eagles to under a field goal favorite.
Result: Eagles 24, Vikings 7 (Eagles cover)
Game: Packers -10.5 vs Bears
Week 1 media reactions: The Packers looked terrible against the Vikings, while the Bears looked like fun plucky underdogs on their way to defeating the 49ers outright. How could Green Bay be favored by this much?
Result: Packers 27, Bears 10 (Packers cover)
Betting Strategy: There are plenty of opportunities in Week 2 to fade the media narratives. Dive deep into the box scores of Week 1. Which team had an inflated win due to a series of fortunate events? Was there a squad that lost but dominated key stats like time of possession, turnovers, or yardage? Did the Bears win because they played a rookie QB in a monsoon and maybe they aren’t actually good? Identify these fraudulent wins and overhyped teams, and bet against them. The public might be riding the Week 1 hype train, but the numbers often tell a different story.
Week 3: All Aboard The Hype Train
By Week 3, narratives start forming. Some teams that were doubted pre-season might actually be showing that they’re the real deal. Conversely, highly-touted teams might be revealing cracks in their armor. This is your “Last Chance to Hop on Board” week. Teams that you believe are significantly better or worse than their initial pre-season projections will still have favorable prices to bet or fade this week.
I like taking week 3 on a very case-by-case basis, but most of my bets will be for or against teams where I’ve formed an opinion on already, and I think I might have 1-2 more weeks before the market catches up. This is also a good week to take a look at divisional or super bowl futures, as you might only have one more week to lock in a good price on a team you like.
As we did in the last two sections, let’s take a look at some 2022 examples and look together in amazement at the following spreads:
Game: Jaguars +6.5 at Chargers
This was your last opportunity to get the Jags at a great price. After their 38-10 dismantling of the Chargers in week 3, the Jags opened up at +6.5 on the road at the Eagles, a significantly better team. The look ahead line on the eagles game was close to 10.
Game: Saints -2 at Panthers
Flipping over to the “fade” side of the strategy, this was the last week the Saints were installed as road favorites over anyone in the NFL. If you had correctly called that the Saints were not going to be a good team in 2022, you would have benefitted from their 8 point outright loss to the Panthers in this game.
Game: Dolphins +4 vs Bills
Sure, the Dolphins had a bit more hype going into the season, and this line did close at something reasonable. However, there were Dolphins +6.5s and +6s available early in the week, indicating the market hadn’t quite gotten there yet on how improved the Dolphins were in 2022. Miami won outright 21-19 for a signature win in the McDaniel era.
Betting Strategy: Odds will start adjusting soon, if not during this week (as you saw last year with the Buffalo-Miami game). If you’ve identified teams that are genuinely surpassing their pre-market expectations, now’s the time to capitalize. Whether you’re betting on their Week 3 game or checking out the futures market, this might be the last week you get a good price on them. By Week 4, the secret will be out, and the value might be gone.
